Risk factors for ischaemic stroke recurrence after hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVE To determine risk factors for ischaemic stroke recurrence among patients admitted to hospital for a first-ever occurrence of ischaemic stroke. DESIGN, SETTING AND PATIENTS Retrospective study involving linked hospitalisation and death records. The cohort comprised 7816 people who were hospitalised for first-ever ischaemic stroke between July 1995 and December 1999 in Western Australia. Cox's proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors for stroke recurrence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Time to first recurrence; cumulative recurrence risk; risk factors for recurrence. RESULTS The median time to first stroke recurrence was 255 days. The cumulative probability of first recurrence was 5.1% (95% CI, 4.6%-5.7%) at 6 months, 8.4% (95% CI, 7.6%-9.1%) at 1 year and 19.8% (95% CI, 18.1%-21.4%) at 4 years. The risk of first recurrence was increased by advancing age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04), Aboriginality (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.02-2.22), diabetes (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07-1.51), a history of cardiac conditions (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01-1.38), post-stroke urinary incontinence (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.57) and transfer to another hospital on index admission (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08-1.46). Admission at first stroke occurrence to a hospital maintaining a stroke unit reduced the risk of recurrence (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.72-0.99). CONCLUSION The risk factors identified in our study have implications for planning secondary prevention strategies. In particular, Aboriginality and transfer to another hospital upon admission for first-ever ischaemic stroke were important risk factors. Research into the level of compliance and access to stroke treatment by Aboriginal patients to prevent further strokes is required.